Why Najib must hold the 13th GE this year instead of 2012

One does not hold an election in a recession year. And we know that it takes some time to recover from a recession. Some economists believe that 2012 is going to be a recession year. The UK is already seeing a decline in property sales and house prices have come down. 

This means Najib must hold the 13th General Election this year, maybe sometime in October or November after the Budget, or else Barisan Nasional is going to be kicked out. Is Najib prepared to place a bet that my assumption is wrong?

THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Raja Petra Kamarudin

Rosenberg Says 99% Chance of Another Recession by 2012

In a Bloomberg video David Rosenberg, chief economist at Gluskin Sheff & Associates, says there is a 99% Chance of Another Recession by 2012. Rosenberg also talks about the outlook for the U.S. economy.

Selected Quotes

Bloomberg: How Certain are you that we may be headed for a recession

Rosenberg: I think that by 2012, I would give it a 99% chance. I say that because as an economist, you have to be part historian. When you have a manufacturing inventory cycle recession, they are usually separated 5 years apart. 

But when you have a balance sheet recession, credit contraction, asset deflation (for example residential real estate), the downturn tends to be separated every 2 to 2.5 years. ... Economists call this a soft patch. It's not like this is a soft patch. Basically, when all the stimulus is gone, you get to see what the emperor looks like disrobed. It's not a pretty picture.

No Double Dip

Rosenberg goes on to say it's a second recession, not a "double dip" and more stimulus is coming once the "Fed sees the white eyes of the economy".

Given that there is no incentive in Congress for more stimulus (nor should there be), Bernanke will have a tougher time, this time, unless there is a significant drop in oil and food prices.

Malaysia Today